Lesson 10: Technology Assessment and Forecasting

Brief Overview/Summary

Today’s topic was about Technology Assessment and Forecasting – with the aim of developing a framework for understanding what is to come next.

As usual, Prof began the lesson with a few quotes:

The first was by Charles Kettering and he says: “My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there”. The second was an African Proverb and it states: “Tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today”.

My interpretation of these two quotes is that the future is inevitable; we will all have to move forward, whether we want to or not. Thus, it would be hugely beneficial if one were prepared for what is to come, rather than be blissfully ignorant and caught off guard when it happens.

Prof also screened a short promotional video produced by Siemens about some of the megatrends in the world. I thought the video was really useful in giving a broad overview of what to expect in the near future and was rather accurate in pinpointing the various megatrends. The video highlighted 2 major changes to expect in the future – urbanisation and demographic changes. These 2 megatrends could be largely attributed to an increasing move by people from rural to urban places of living. The video also identified some of the impacts that these 2 major trends are likely to have on society: greater need for control and security; growing demand for quality healthcare; increasing scarcity of natural resources; increasing importance of mobility as a factor for improving the quality of life; and the need for sustainable infrastructure.

It is important for businesses and policymakers to keep in mind these likely impacts in drawing up strategic plans for the future in order to be well placed to manage these challenges.

Interesting observations and points

Technology forecasting is the assessment of a variety of technologies and making predictions about how they are likely to develop over time.

Technology assessment is looking at a particular technology and making predictions about how it is likely to impact the functioning of particular businesses or a particular organisation. The utility of technology assessment is more tailored to individual demands and hence more specific in focus.

Some of the drivers identified for technology assessment and forecasting include:

1.       Exponential growth in the range of new technologies with potential world changing significance

2.       The need to gain an understanding of what kinds of changes a new technology innovation might bring – in economic, social, ethical/legal, environmental and other terms

3.       The need to prioritize in deciding whether and when to invest in research and development of new innovations and technologies

4.       The need to prioritize, given limited resources, on whether and when to implement and use new innovations and technologies (for instance to decide what kind of infrastructure to implement into our society) – this is especially pertinent for developing countries

Another video that was screened – “Tracking the Future – Global Trends” which I felt was especially insightful in identifying several global trends that are to characterise the future. These trends include: a faster and more frugal world; a world that is becoming increasingly urbanised with more people moving into urban cities; the emergence of new tribes in the world – new groups of people with new interests and commonalities (e.g. the rise of the internet generation); the world becoming increasingly universal; changes which the world witnesses are constantly radical; and emerging ethical considerations.

It is also important to note that power is becoming increasingly diffused among the different societies and people in the world – it is now no longer considered to be concentrated in the hands of a few, traditionally regarded powerhouses such as the United States and the European Union. The world today sees the rise of new powers and emerging economies with huge potential for growth – such as the BRIC countries. Prof also suggested the interesting idea that the G20 countries might actually be overtaking the G8, which is an apt exemplification of how power is becoming more diffused.

Prof also touched on the importance of foresight and 2 observations which stood out to me were:

1.       The need to analyse supply and demand trends, especially in relation to the labour force. It is essential to prepare the labour force today for the challenges that are likely to be demanded of it in the future, so as to ensure the adequacy of the society’s manpower

2.       The importance of public engagement – it is necessary that there be a sharing of findings and discussions with the public on world trends and present issues in order for stakeholders to be able to develop feasible solutions and ideas for progress. An example of this can be seen in Siemens video productions for public viewing.

As for the readings for this week, I found reading 2 – “Futurology: In Perspective” – to be a rather interesting and enjoyable read. It discusses what is meant by the study of futurology – essentially the systematic forecasting of the future, especially drawing insight from present trends in society. The article explores the evolution of futurology as a discipline with fair amount of scientific rigour – it acknowledges that while futurology may not be an exact science, futurologist attempt to employ as scientific a research method as possible. They do not claim their work to be definitive of what the future holds but rather see their work as a directional guide. The article attempts to distinguish between science-fiction and futurology and discusses the relevance of futurology in the context of fast changing technological changes. It concludes that futurology is not about predicting the future alone, but about taking proactive positions towards creating desirable outcomes in the future.

Key Take-Away Points

It is important to be aware of the implications and future consequences of our actions today. For instance, in considering our developmental plans and our use of energy, we also have to take into account the impacts of our choices on the environment.

The importance of strategic planning and foresight, as is emphasized throughout this topic, to enable relevant stakeholders to keep up with rapid technological advancements in today’s world so as to remain viable.

Personal Ratings

I felt that the lesson was relatable and practical. Indeed, the future is inevitable and I couldn’t agree more that it is better to expect and be prepared for what is to come rather than plod on ignorantly and be caught off guard when radical change happens. However, I felt that the lesson was a little technical and dry, especially when the different foresight methodologies were discussed.

I would rate this lesson 7/10.