Thursday, November 14, 2013

Session 8: Energy and World Change - Past, Present and Future

Brief overview/summary
The world is progressively transitioning from its current unsustainable energy paradigm to a future powered by entirely renewable and clean energy supply. Only by making such a transition will we be able to avoid the very worst impacts of climate change.

The impetuses for a revolutionary change in mankind’s use of energy are many, of which the following are perhaps the most pertinent:

Limited non-renewable energy resources
Supplies of cheap, conventional oil and gas are declining while our energy demands continue to increase. It is clear that our reliance on fossil fuels cannot continue indefinitely. With the world’s population projected to increase to over 9 billion over the next 40 years, “business-as-usual” is not an option.

Global warming and climate change
Even if fossil fuel supplies were infinite, we would have another compelling reason for an urgent switch to renewable energy: climate change. Hundreds of millions of people worldwide are already affected by water shortages, crop failures, tropical diseases, flooding and extreme weather events – conditions that are likely to be made worse by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the Earth’s atmosphere. The WHO estimates that climate change is already causing more than 150,000 deaths a year.

Global warming threatens the fragile balance of our planet’s ecosystems, and could consign a quarter of all species to extinction. The loss of ecological services from forests, coral reefs and other ecosystems will also have huge economic implications.

Environmental concerns
Energy companies are increasingly looking to fill the gap with unconventional sources of oil and gas, such as shale gas, oil from deep water platforms like BP’s Deepwater Horizon, or the Canadian tar sands. But these come at an unprecedented cost – and not just in economic terms. Many reserves are located in some of the world’s most pristine places – such as tropical rainforests and the Arctic – that are vital for biodiversity and the ecosystem services that we all depend on, from freshwater to a healthy atmosphere. Extracting them is difficult and dangerous, and costly to businesses, communities and economies when things go wrong.
Processing and using unconventional fossil sources produces large quantities of greenhouse gasses and chemical pollution, and puts unsustainable demands on our freshwater resources, with severe impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services.

The impetus for developing countries
A fifth of the world’s population today still has no access to reliable electricity – drastically inhibiting their chances of getting an education and earning a living, not to mention escape from the vicious cycle of poverty. As energy prices increase, the world’s poor will continue to be excluded.

At the same time, more than 2.7 billion people are dependent on traditional bioenergy (mainly from wood, crop residues and animal dung) as their main source for cooking and heating fuel. This is often harvested unsustainably, causing soil erosion and increasing the risk of flooding, not to mention threatening the biodiversity and adding to greenhouse gas emissions. Traditional stoves also present a significant health problem – according to World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates, 2.5 million women and young children die prematurely each year from inhaling their fumes. With many developing societies becoming increasingly urban, air quality in cities will decline further.

Finite and increasingly expensive fossil fuels are not the answer for developing countries. Instead, renewable energy sources offer the potential to transform the quality of life and improve the economic prospects of billions.

Reading Notes (interesting observations and Key Take-Aways)
Reading 2 addressed the issues in achieving sustainable transportation. Sustainable transportation is defined as representing the goal of ensuring that that environment, social and economic considerations are factored into decisions affecting transportation activity.

The impacts of transportation on sustainability was shown in a table:

It was noted that Sustainable planning does not necessary require tradeoffs between economic, social and environmental objectives, but rather is a matter of finding strategies that help achieve all of these objectives over the long term by increasing transportation efficiency.

Whereas conventional planning proceeds on a concept of linear transport progress, which envisions newer, faster modes of transport modes displacing older, slower modes, with the assumption that older modes are unimportant, sustainable planning envisages a parallel model. That is, a model which assumes that each mode can be useful and the goal is to create a balanced transport system that uses each mode for what it does best – this involves improvement (in all aspects – comfort, speed, safety, cost savings, etc.) to all useful modes.

Several implications of sustainable transportation were identified:
Decision making:
•             Requires a paradigm shift in the way people think and solve problems – this involves a more comprehensive analysis of impacts, consideration of a broader range of solutions and more effective pubic involvement in the planning process
•             Whereas conventional planning reflects reductionist decision making in which problems are assigned to a specialised organisation with narrowly defined responsibilities (often what results is the solutions of one agency exacerbates the problems of another), sustainability suggests that public involvement is increasingly important.
•             Some of the value of public involvement: decisions may more accurately reflect community values by giving people more opportunities to affect decisions; contribution to more equitable transportation decisions through giving disadvantaged groups more involvement in decisions that affect them; creation of increased public support for policies which require behaviour changes or sacrifices in a community.
•             However, the debate over how best to improve public involvement and what amount of such involvement is adequate for sustainability is still ongoing.
•             There is the risk of domination by either professional elite or activist groups representing special interest in such public involvement

Automobile dependency:
•             Most sustainability transport planning supports reduced automobile dependency in order to minimise the economic, social and environmental costs imposed.
•             The issues involved in the debate over automobiles is likely wider than just economic v environmental – various market distortions have been identified and recognised as contributing to excessive automobile dependency and vehicle designs that are more polluting and dangerous than optimal
•             The author posits that reducing automobile dependency will ultimately help to achieve a more sustainable transport system and reducing market distortions can help to achieve this objective.

Transportation equity:
•             Lack of guidelines to assess and evaluate transportation equity
•             Equity considerations can come in two forms – horizontal and vertical equity
•             Horizontal equity suggests that externalities of transportation should be reduced where they are specifically justified and also that the use of transportation should be appropriately priced – users ‘should get what they pay for and pay for what they get’
•             Vertical equity implies that access options should improve for people who are economically, socially and physically disadvantaged

Community liveability
•             Community liveability is a worthwhile sustainability goal in itself; it also can support other sustainable objectives such as reducing the need to travel and increasing the use of public transit
•             It addresses local environmental quality, quality of community interactions and community cohesion and the ability of the community to satisfy the basic needs of residents
•             Given that a high quality public realm forges community liveability, there is a need to improve the streetscape through creating opportunities for greater interaction and introduction of polities to encourage non-motorise transport

Land use
•             Policies which determine the use of land may influence the development of transportation patterns
•             Experts have concluded that sustainable transportation requires higher-density land use patterns that accommodate alternative modes; however non-believers argue that high density development itself imposes costs
The paper concludes by postulate various viable visions to achieving sustainable transportation:
Technical – reliance on technological innovations to solve specific sustainability problems, create wealth and increase mobility.
Demand management – involves changing travel behaviour by increasing traveller choice and through encouraging more economically efficient travel patterns.
Economic reform – creation of a more optimal transportation market by reforming transport prices and investment practices.
Alternative modes – provision of alternative modes of transport; mainly involves improvement to public transit, non-motorised transport, telecommunicating.
Land use/community design changes – changing land use patterns to reduce travel distances and increase mode choice.

Reading 3 was a 2010 World Energy Council assessment of country-specific energy and climate policies and their implications for sustainability. It identified that there were 3 fundamental issues that required to be addressed today:

Security of supply
There is a need to invest in new sources and infrastructure to meet demand. The recent financial crisis has negatively affected some investment plans and the recent surge in oil and commodity prices may curb growth.

Environmental protection and climate change
The energy sector is responsible for 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions and much of regional and urban air pollution, hence it is clearly on the front to address climate change. Also, in a time where more people are moving from rural to urban cities, air quality is a major concern.

Equity
Energy goes in concert with development – there is a need to prevent the creation or exacerbation of inequalities within and across countries. There is a need to work towards a sustainable solution which reconciles economic growth, protection of the environment and greater energy equity among peoples.
Existing concerns include:
Although energy resources are not a major constraint, the issue is with their uneven distribution across nations and the fact that ensuring energy supply security will lead to an increase in energy prices.
The energy industry will need to venture further afield, in untapped areas, and employ ever more sophisticated technologies to tap the remaining available resources. Concurrently, there is the need to adhere to the highest standards of safety.
The real shortage today relates to governance. There is a dearth of effective rule and smart policy frameworks to update our existing energy policies and ensure the right resources and technologies are available in the right place, at the right time and at the right price.
Innovation in terms of policies, institutions and governance is just as important as technological innovation going ahead.
The need for new energy governance has been recognized by Copenhagen, as evidenced by the shift from top-down approach of Kyoto to bottom-up approach based on national commitments – in the form of the Copenhagen Accord. The energy sustainability policy has been put at the centre of the sustainability debate. The challenge now is to design sound and effective public policies to deliver the national objectives that have been adopted by more than 80 countries.

Reading 6 was a report from the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and discussed the concept of achieving 100% renewable energy by 2050.

The report cited 10 recommendations for a 100% renewable energy future:
1.            Clean energy: promote only the most efficient products; develop existing and new renewable energy sources to provide enough clean energy for all by 2050
2.            Grids: share and exchange clean energy through grids and trade, making the best use of sustainable energy resources in different areas
3.            Access: end energy poverty – provide clean electricity and promote sustainable practices, such as efficient cook stoves, to everyone in developing countries
4.            Money: invest in renewable, clean energy and energy-efficient products and buildings
5.            Food: stop food waste; choose food that is sourced in an efficient and sustainable way to free up land for nature, sustainable forestry and biofuel production; everyone has an equal right to healthy levels of protein in their diet – for this to happen, wealthier people need to eat less meat.
6.            Materials: reduce, reuse, recycle – to minimize waste and save energy; develop durable materials and avoid things we don’t need
7.            Transport: provide incentives to encourage greater use of public transport and reduce the distances people and goods travel; promote electrification whenever possible and support research into hydrogen and other alternative fuels for shipping and aviation.
8.            Technology: develop national, bilateral and multilateral action plans to promote R&D in energy efficiency and renewable energy
9.            Sustainability: develop and enforce strict sustainability criteria that ensure renewable energy is compatible with environmental and development goals
10.          Agreements: support ambitious climate and energy agreements to provide global guidance and promote global cooperation on renewable energy and efficiency efforts

Personal ratings
I would rate this session a 9/10.

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